March 6, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.86 15.23 0.60
Hurricanes 15.61 16.18 -0.60
Lions 13.19 13.81 -0.60
Highlanders 9.87 10.29 -0.40
Chiefs 8.60 9.29 -0.70
Sharks 1.03 1.02 0.00
Stormers 0.99 1.48 -0.50
Brumbies 0.19 1.75 -1.60
Blues 0.11 -0.24 0.30
Waratahs -2.88 -3.92 1.00
Bulls -3.70 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.98 -4.64 -0.30
Reds -10.14 -9.47 -0.70
Rebels -12.12 -14.96 2.80
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 02 21 – 27 -4.80 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 02 18 – 10 -8.90 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 03 45 – 28 19.10 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 03 17 – 37 -0.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 03 24 – 24 9.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 03 35 – 49 -13.30 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 9 – 34 -15.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 09 Highlanders 12.90
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 09 Brumbies -8.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 10 Hurricanes 3.30
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 10 Bulls -2.40
5 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Mar 10 Sharks 24.10
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 10 Lions 17.10
7 Jaguares vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Jaguares 1.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »