Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 12.04 | 11.19 | 0.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 12.04 | 11.13 | 0.90 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 4.03 | 1.23 | 2.80 |
| Wasps | 3.57 | 8.30 | -4.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.48 | 3.42 | 0.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.90 | 6.26 | -3.40 |
| Harlequins | 1.88 | 2.05 | -0.20 |
| Bath Rugby | 1.76 | 3.11 | -1.40 |
| Sale Sharks | 0.49 | -0.81 | 1.30 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -2.63 | -3.51 | 0.90 |
| Worcester Warriors | -3.45 | -5.18 | 1.70 |
| Bristol | -4.54 | -5.60 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 21 | 6 – 32 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens | Dec 22 | 31 – 13 | 4.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | Dec 22 | 35 – 24 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Rugby | Dec 22 | 17 – 20 | -0.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | Dec 22 | 27 – 10 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Bath Rugby | Dec 23 | 14 – 24 | 8.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 28 | Exeter Chiefs | -3.10 |
| 2 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 29 | Gloucester Rugby | 9.00 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Wasps | Dec 29 | Harlequins | 3.80 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors | Dec 29 | Saracens | 21.00 |
| 5 | Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 30 | Bath Rugby | 4.40 |
| 6 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 30 | Bristol | 3.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »