Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.47 | 11.13 | -0.70 |
| Saracens | 10.12 | 11.19 | -1.10 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 4.57 | 1.23 | 3.30 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.28 | 3.42 | 0.90 |
| Harlequins | 2.98 | 2.05 | 0.90 |
| Bath Rugby | 2.40 | 3.11 | -0.70 |
| Wasps | 2.33 | 8.30 | -6.00 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.48 | -0.81 | 2.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | 0.74 | 6.26 | -5.50 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.13 | -5.18 | 3.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -2.72 | -3.51 | 0.80 |
| Bristol | -2.94 | -5.60 | 2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 102 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 23 | 25 – 27 | 5.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Rugby | Mar 23 | 29 – 10 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Wasps | Mar 23 | 27 – 14 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 23 | 15 – 29 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 23 | 22 – 17 | 0.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Harlequins | Mar 23 | 27 – 20 | 13.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. Bristol | Apr 06 | Bath Rugby | 10.80 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 06 | Exeter Chiefs | -4.20 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Rugby | Apr 06 | Northampton Saints | 5.20 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins | Apr 06 | Sale Sharks | 4.00 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 06 | Saracens | 18.30 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors | Apr 06 | Wasps | 10.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »