April 30, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.07 11.13 -1.10
Saracens 10.01 11.19 -1.20
Northampton Saints 4.70 3.42 1.30
Gloucester Rugby 4.39 1.23 3.20
Wasps 2.67 8.30 -5.60
Bath Rugby 2.59 3.11 -0.50
Harlequins 2.47 2.05 0.40
Sale Sharks 1.12 -0.81 1.90
Leicester Tigers -0.43 6.26 -6.70
Worcester Warriors -1.02 -5.18 4.20
Bristol -1.60 -5.60 4.00
Newcastle Falcons -3.38 -3.51 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Apr 27 17 – 15 14.30 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 27 20 – 23 7.70 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 27 17 – 31 -1.40 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby Apr 27 6 – 3 4.30 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Saracens Apr 27 14 – 31 -0.40 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 27 27 – 20 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Wasps May 04 Bath Rugby 5.40
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks May 04 Bristol 2.80
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons May 04 Gloucester Rugby 13.30
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers May 04 Harlequins 8.40
5 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 04 Northampton Saints 11.20
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs May 04 Saracens 5.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »