June 4, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.55 6.03 3.50
Roosters 7.64 8.72 -1.10
Rabbitohs 6.03 3.89 2.10
Raiders 2.37 1.81 0.60
Broncos 2.20 2.63 -0.40
Sharks 1.09 3.90 -2.80
Knights 0.88 -8.51 9.40
Cowboys -1.36 0.15 -1.50
Warriors -1.69 -0.27 -1.40
Wests Tigers -2.77 -5.57 2.80
Sea Eagles -3.24 -5.61 2.40
Eels -3.38 -6.17 2.80
Titans -4.30 -3.36 -0.90
Dragons -4.35 0.06 -4.40
Bulldogs -4.96 -0.61 -4.30
Panthers -5.72 0.93 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 30 15 – 12 0.10 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 31 26 – 14 -9.40 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jun 01 10 – 12 -4.70 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 4 – 6 0.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 07 Rabbitohs 8.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 07 Raiders -2.10
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 08 Storm -6.70
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 08 Sharks 7.50
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 08 Cowboys 4.90
6 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 09 Broncos 9.50
7 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 09 Roosters -10.40
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 10 Bulldogs 2.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »