September 10, 2019

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.44 6.03 6.40
Roosters 11.06 8.72 2.30
Raiders 6.18 1.81 4.40
Rabbitohs 3.43 3.89 -0.50
Sharks 2.58 3.90 -1.30
Eels 0.64 -6.17 6.80
Sea Eagles 0.54 -5.61 6.10
Panthers -0.13 0.93 -1.10
Wests Tigers -0.18 -5.57 5.40
Broncos -1.86 2.63 -4.50
Bulldogs -2.52 -0.61 -1.90
Cowboys -3.95 0.15 -4.10
Warriors -5.17 -0.27 -4.90
Knights -5.92 -8.51 2.60
Dragons -6.14 0.06 -6.20
Titans -12.99 -3.36 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 05 16 – 10 -6.40 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 32 – 16 1.00 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 06 24 – 16 21.20 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 07 20 – 24 19.10 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sep 07 30 – 14 0.10 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Dragons Sep 07 16 – 24 -3.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 08 8 – 25 3.00 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 08 54 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 13 Roosters 10.60
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 14 Storm 9.30
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 14 Sea Eagles 1.00
4 Eels vs. Broncos Sep 15 Eels 5.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »