AFL Predictions for Week 24
Team Ratings for Week 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | 26.44 | 6.56 | 19.90 |
| Geelong Cats | 24.63 | 26.75 | -2.10 |
| Sydney Swans | 23.30 | 0.56 | 22.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.76 | 26.20 | -7.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.24 | 22.83 | -7.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.20 | 15.32 | -3.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | 8.39 | 1.64 | 6.80 |
| Collingwood | 6.96 | 11.76 | -4.80 |
| Carlton Blues | 4.19 | -4.77 | 9.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | 2.36 | 26.06 | -23.70 |
| GWS Giants | 1.09 | 9.54 | -8.50 |
| St Kilda Saints | -1.70 | -7.63 | 5.90 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -3.60 | 10.24 | -13.80 |
| North Melbourne | -10.79 | -21.71 | 10.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -13.39 | -14.65 | 1.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -30.23 | -39.36 | 9.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.54 | -29.44 | -4.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -38.32 | -27.89 | -10.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 189 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne | Aug 06 | 77 – 100 | 19.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 07 | 125 – 58 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 08 | 113 – 109 | -9.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 08 | 167 – 70 | 39.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 08 | 117 – 50 | 75.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 08 | 63 – 54 | 65.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 09 | 77 – 79 | 18.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Collingwood | Aug 09 | 98 – 117 | -27.80 | TRUE |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 09 | 62 – 106 | 0.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 24
Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 14 | Fremantle Dockers | 25.20 |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 15 | Brisbane Lions | 27.40 |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood | Aug 15 | Hawthorn Hawks | 8.30 |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 15 | Geelong Cats | -24.40 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 15 | Melbourne Demons | -10.80 |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 15 | St Kilda Saints | -31.80 |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 16 | Sydney Swans | -50.60 |
| 8 | GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 16 | GWS Giants | 42.30 |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 16 | Carlton Blues | -1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »