October 22, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.51 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 7.41 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 1.08 0.25 0.80
Gloucester 0.96 0.58 0.40
Bath -0.19 1.10 -1.30
Sale Sharks -0.20 0.17 -0.40
Harlequins -0.23 -0.81 0.60
Wasps -0.41 0.31 -0.70
Bristol -1.48 -2.77 1.30
Leicester Tigers -2.04 -1.76 -0.30
Worcester Warriors -2.40 -2.69 0.30
London Irish -4.79 -5.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 43 – 16 0.60 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 22 – 19 13.30 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 16 – 18 4.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 25 – 27 13.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 24 – 16 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 26 – 29 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 Northampton Saints 8.00
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 Gloucester 5.90
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 Harlequins 5.80
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Sale Sharks -0.10
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 Saracens -6.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »