Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 9.84 | 9.34 | 0.50 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 7.53 | 7.99 | -0.50 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.88 | 0.17 | 3.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.67 | 0.25 | 1.40 |
| Gloucester | 1.37 | 0.58 | 0.80 |
| Bath | 0.16 | 1.10 | -0.90 |
| Harlequins | -1.06 | -0.81 | -0.30 |
| Bristol | -2.00 | -2.77 | 0.80 |
| Wasps | -2.00 | 0.31 | -2.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | -2.99 | -1.76 | -1.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -4.94 | -2.69 | -2.30 |
| London Irish | -5.24 | -5.51 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Leicester Tigers | Jan 25 | 13 – 10 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | Jan 25 | 34 – 16 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 25 | 19 – 22 | 9.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Saracens | Jan 25 | 41 – 14 | -9.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. London Irish | Jan 25 | 16 – 20 | 13.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps | Jan 25 | 26 – 30 | 2.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 15 | Exeter Chiefs | -1.70 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. London Irish | Feb 15 | Harlequins | 8.70 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps | Feb 15 | Leicester Tigers | 3.50 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Feb 15 | Northampton Saints | 8.20 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 15 | Saracens | 10.50 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bath | Feb 15 | Bath | -0.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »