NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 13.27 | 12.25 | 1.00 |
| Storm | 13.19 | 12.73 | 0.50 |
| Raiders | 6.55 | 7.06 | -0.50 |
| Eels | 5.18 | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| Panthers | 4.10 | -0.13 | 4.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.55 | 2.85 | -0.30 |
| Sharks | 2.13 | 1.81 | 0.30 |
| Wests Tigers | 1.24 | -0.18 | 1.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.15 | 1.05 | -0.90 |
| Knights | -1.57 | -5.92 | 4.40 |
| Dragons | -4.19 | -6.14 | 1.90 |
| Cowboys | -5.84 | -3.95 | -1.90 |
| Bulldogs | -6.62 | -2.52 | -4.10 |
| Warriors | -8.21 | -5.17 | -3.00 |
| Broncos | -9.64 | -5.53 | -4.10 |
| Titans | -14.29 | -12.99 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Raiders | Jul 16 | 20 – 24 | 10.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Storm vs. Titans | Jul 17 | 42 – 6 | 26.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Broncos | Jul 17 | 48 – 0 | 9.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Jul 18 | 28 – 22 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Jul 18 | 18 – 20 | 7.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Jul 18 | 22 – 18 | -4.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Jul 19 | 46 – 10 | 12.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Jul 19 | 22 – 10 | 11.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 23 | Eels | 5.90 |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 24 | Sea Eagles | -4.00 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Storm | Jul 24 | Storm | -20.80 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Jul 25 | Roosters | 26.00 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Jul 25 | Sharks | 6.30 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 25 | Raiders | 6.00 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Jul 26 | Knights | 7.00 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Panthers | Jul 26 | Panthers | -16.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »