Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brumbies | 2.23 | 4.67 | -2.40 |
| Rebels | -2.09 | -5.52 | 3.40 |
| Reds | -2.81 | -0.31 | -2.50 |
| Waratahs | -4.81 | -7.12 | 2.30 |
| Force | -10.81 | -10.00 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Please note that if you are checking back on my predictions, there is a different prediction of the points difference for the Rebels versus Brumbies game. I had not realised this was to be played at a neutral ground so gave the Rebels home ground advantage. I still had the Brumbies as winning so I still had the result wrong. I have changed the prediction now so I don’t mess up my ratings for future games.
At the moment it requires an amount of checking to ensure I have home ground advantage assignments correct in games played in Australia. That is particularly the case in the NRL with games played in Sydney.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Aug 07 | 30 – 12 | -7.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Reds | Aug 08 | 45 – 12 | -1.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Force vs. Waratahs | Aug 14 | Waratahs | -6.00 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Rebels | Aug 15 | Reds | 3.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »