August 18, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.01 7.99 2.00
Saracens 7.01 9.34 -2.30
Sale Sharks 5.77 0.17 5.60
Wasps 2.25 0.31 1.90
Gloucester 0.91 0.58 0.30
Bristol 0.01 -2.77 2.80
Bath -1.12 1.10 -2.20
Northampton Saints -1.44 0.25 -1.70
Harlequins -1.47 -0.81 -0.70
Leicester Tigers -3.08 -1.76 -1.30
London Irish -6.14 -5.51 -0.60
Worcester Warriors -6.50 -2.69 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Aug 15 16 – 10 -3.90 FALSE
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Aug 15 15 – 44 -0.10 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 15 26 – 13 18.20 TRUE
4 Bath vs. London Irish Aug 16 34 – 17 8.50 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. Saracens Aug 16 16 – 12 -3.40 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Aug 17 21 – 34 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 22 Sale Sharks 0.30
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Aug 22 Gloucester 5.40
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 22 Wasps 13.20
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Aug 22 Saracens 13.00
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Aug 22 Northampton Saints -0.20
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Aug 23 Leicester Tigers 2.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »