September 15, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.17 7.99 2.20
Saracens 8.20 9.34 -1.10
Sale Sharks 6.09 0.17 5.90
Wasps 5.79 0.31 5.50
Bath 3.29 1.10 2.20
Bristol 1.39 -2.77 4.20
Gloucester -0.50 0.58 -1.10
Harlequins -0.56 -0.81 0.20
Northampton Saints -3.12 0.25 -3.40
Leicester Tigers -6.33 -1.76 -4.60
Worcester Warriors -7.96 -2.69 -5.30
London Irish -10.23 -5.51 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 13 59 – 35 7.10 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Sep 13 28 – 24 0.80 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 14 25 – 40 4.20 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 14 22 – 37 9.80 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 14 40 – 17 0.30 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Sep 15 15 – 28 6.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Sep 23 Bath 8.30
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 29 Bristol 12.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Sep 30 Exeter Chiefs 24.90
4 Harlequins vs. Wasps Oct 01 Wasps -1.80
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 01 Sale Sharks -4.70
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens Oct 01 Saracens -11.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »