December 16, 2020

Causes and implications

From the Herald

A coroner has warned of the dangers of driving while impaired by drugs after reviewing nine fatal vehicle crashes and finding cannabis use was implicated in six of them.

but further down in the story

He was found to be almost five times the legal drink-drive limit while also testing positive for cannabis and its constituent element tetrahydrocannabinol (THC).

At a blood alcohol concentration of 0.25%, your risk of a crash has increased by more than a factor of 100.  That is, more than 99 out of 100 crashes in people with blood alcohol of 0.25% will be caused by the alcohol. You don’t need cannabis use to explain a crash like this, and it’s not clear that there was any relevant cannabis use.  The report says the driver was at a BBQ where people were drinking. There is no suggestion in the story that anyone was smoking weed (though it isn’t specifically ruled out).

The description of testing positive for “cannabis and its constituent element tetrahydrocannabinol” is also a bit weird.  I think they just tested for THC; that’s what I’ve seen in previous reports from ESR, who do the testing.  And they can pick up very small amounts of THC; a 2012 publication on tests after fatal crashes reported a range from approximately 0.1 ng/mL to 44 ng/mL (mean 5.6 ng/mL) concentration in blood samples.  Some of these people will have been impaired by THC, but by no means all of them.  ESR are careful about how they report this sort of thing, and don’t write things like “cannabis use was implicated” when they mean “THC was detectable”, but the coroner seems to be less careful.

The coroner didn’t say anything about alcohol use in the other eight fatal vehicle crashes.  You’d hope, if he’s making those sorts of statements about drugs that some of the crashes didn’t involve large amounts of alcohol and had evidence of recent consumption of cannabis or some other reason to think it was really implicated, but you’d also hope he’d make that clear if it was true.

 

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »