Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 6.48 | 7.35 | -0.90 |
| Bristol | 3.93 | 1.28 | 2.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.13 | 4.96 | -1.80 |
| Harlequins | 2.62 | -1.08 | 3.70 |
| Wasps | -0.55 | 5.66 | -6.20 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.11 | -2.48 | 1.40 |
| Bath | -1.78 | 2.14 | -3.90 |
| Gloucester | -3.06 | -1.02 | -2.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | -4.19 | -6.14 | 1.90 |
| London Irish | -5.01 | -8.05 | 3.00 |
| Worcester Warriors | -6.63 | -5.71 | -0.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.93 | -10.00 | 3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 71 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Wasps | Mar 13 | 37 – 20 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Mar 14 | 21 – 20 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 14 | 14 – 20 | 7.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 15 | 20 – 17 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath | Mar 14 | 19 – 38 | 1.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 14 | 17 – 14 | -0.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 21 | Bath | 9.40 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 21 | Exeter Chiefs | 15.20 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | Mar 21 | Harlequins | 10.20 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps | Mar 21 | Wasps | -1.90 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Mar 21 | Bristol | -0.50 |
| 6 | Sale Sharks vs. London Irish | Mar 21 | Sale Sharks | 12.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »