Posts from July 2021 (14)

July 13, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

A note concerning treatment of cancelled games, or where a 0-0 score is allocated. I delete any cancelled games from my database, but also any games with an awarded result. That is because awarded result games will almost always cause an adjustment to my ratings which is not justifiable.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Western Province 3.25 3.28 -0.00
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.36 -2.17 -1.20
Pumas -4.24 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -7.85 -9.50 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 28 – 30 15.40 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 17 – 16 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Jul 17 Sharks 12.70
2 Griquas vs. Bulls Jul 17 Bulls -8.70
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs Jul 17 Lions 9.30

 

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July 6, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.02 14.53 9.50
Panthers 14.40 8.88 5.50
Sea Eagles 10.37 -4.77 15.10
Eels 10.11 1.68 8.40
Rabbitohs 7.99 7.73 0.30
Roosters 3.83 10.25 -6.40
Sharks -3.07 -0.76 -2.30
Warriors -3.63 -1.84 -1.80
Titans -4.18 -7.22 3.00
Dragons -4.85 -4.95 0.10
Knights -5.15 -2.61 -2.50
Wests Tigers -5.45 -3.07 -2.40
Raiders -6.34 6.98 -13.30
Cowboys -12.09 -8.05 -4.00
Broncos -13.48 -11.16 -2.30
Bulldogs -14.48 -7.62 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 01 0 – 46 -11.40 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 02 18 – 19 -2.00 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 02 13 – 12 8.70 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 03 0 – 66 -13.20 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 03 6 – 44 8.50 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Cowboys Jul 03 38 – 0 4.30 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 26 – 18 -10.60 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 22 – 38 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jul 08 Sea Eagles 19.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 09 Rabbitohs 23.10
3 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 10 Roosters -15.30
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 11 Sharks 3.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Western Province 3.91 3.28 0.60
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.04 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.56 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -8.52 -9.50 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 02 26 – 22 7.60 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Jul 03 32 – 31 1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 Western Province 15.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 Cheetahs 4.50
3 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 10 Sharks 5.50

 

July 4, 2021

Maths

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Q: Did you see that learning maths can affect your brain?

A: Well, yes. There wouldn’t be much point otherwise

Q: No, biochemically affect it

A: Yes, that’s how learning works

Q: But the researchers “can actually guess with a very good accuracy whether someone is continuing to study maths or not just based on the concentration of this chemical in their brain.”

A: How good is “very good”?

Q: I thought I was the one who asked those questions.

A:

Q: How good is “very good”?

A: The research paper doesn’t say

Q: Can you get their data?

A: <downloading and analysis noises>

A: Ok, so in their data you can get about 66% accuracy, 55 correct out of 83, using this brain chemical

Q: And just by guessing?

A: 56% (46 out of 83)

Q: Are these changes in the brain good? I mean, apart from learning maths being good for learning maths?

A: That seems to be assumed, but they don’t explain why

Q: And what about subjects other than maths?

A: The Herald piece says the differences they saw with maths don’t happen with any other subject, but the research paper doesn’t say they did the comparisons — in fact, it more or less denies that they did, because it talks about how many comparisons they did just in terms of two brain regions and two chemicals, not in terms of other subjects studied.

Q: But in any case, learning some other subject might still cause different changes in the brain

A: I think we can guarantee that it does, yes

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