September 7, 2021

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.37 14.53 3.80
Panthers 14.32 8.88 5.40
Rabbitohs 14.10 7.73 6.40
Sea Eagles 11.77 -4.77 16.50
Roosters 5.16 10.25 -5.10
Eels 1.66 1.68 -0.00
Titans 0.72 -7.22 7.90
Raiders -1.10 6.98 -8.10
Sharks -1.10 -0.76 -0.30
Knights -6.57 -2.61 -4.00
Dragons -7.99 -4.95 -3.00
Broncos -8.90 -11.16 2.30
Warriors -8.99 -1.84 -7.10
Bulldogs -10.25 -7.62 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.94 -3.07 -7.90
Cowboys -12.27 -8.05 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 139 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 02 16 – 40 1.00 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Storm Sep 03 16 – 28 -17.50 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Sep 03 6 – 40 -4.70 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Knights Sep 04 35 – 22 -1.90 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 18 – 46 -19.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Sep 04 20 – 16 29.40 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Warriors Sep 05 44 – 0 6.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Sep 05 0 – 38 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Sep 10 Storm 6.60
2 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 11 Roosters 4.40
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 11 Panthers 0.20
4 Eels vs. Knights Sep 12 Eels 8.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »