September 21, 2021

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.54 10.71 0.80
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Wellington 6.39 5.62 0.80
Bay of Plenty 5.00 5.20 -0.20
Canterbury 4.96 6.44 -1.50
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Waikato 4.02 2.52 1.50
Hawke’s Bay 3.83 4.07 -0.20
Taranaki -0.34 -4.52 4.20
Otago -4.74 -3.47 -1.30
Northland -9.19 -4.75 -4.40
Southland -10.73 -10.39 -0.30
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Manawatu -12.13 -14.72 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 17 19 – 20 3.30 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Wellington Sep 18 32 – 26 -4.70 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Tasman Sep 18 29 – 48 -16.80 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 36 – 33 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 24 Tasman 11.00
2 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 25 Canterbury -12.20
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 25 Manawatu 0.60
4 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 26 Wellington 6.10
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 26 Bay of Plenty 8.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »