Posts from October 2021 (21)

October 26, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.87 14.79 1.10
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 6.68 7.41 -0.70
Connacht 2.85 1.72 1.10
Glasgow 2.76 3.69 -0.90
Bulls 2.61 3.65 -1.00
Edinburgh 2.23 2.90 -0.70
Stormers 1.57 0.00 1.60
Ospreys 1.01 0.94 0.10
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -3.08 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.46 -4.50 0.00
Dragons -4.95 -6.92 2.00
Zebre -15.68 -13.47 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Benetton Oct 23 34 – 28 9.90 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 23 10 – 27 -10.20 TRUE
3 Glasgow vs. Leinster Oct 24 15 – 31 -5.40 TRUE
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 24 31 – 29 10.60 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Ulster Oct 24 36 – 11 -1.30 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Munster Oct 24 18 – 10 -4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Nov 27 Connacht 8.30
2 Benetton vs. Glasgow Nov 27 Glasgow -0.70
3 Stormers vs. Zebre Nov 27 Stormers 23.70
4 Sharks vs. Scarlets Nov 28 Sharks 8.60
5 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 28 Edinburgh -0.70
6 Bulls vs. Munster Nov 28 Munster -1.80
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Nov 28 Leinster 14.20
8 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 29 Lions 4.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.16 6.83 2.30
La Rochelle 7.55 6.78 0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 6.43 5.42 1.00
Lyon Rugby 5.75 4.15 1.60
Racing-Metro 92 5.40 6.13 -0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.83 5.09 -0.30
Montpellier 2.12 -0.01 2.10
Stade Francais Paris 0.47 1.20 -0.70
Castres Olympique -0.09 0.94 -1.00
RC Toulonnais -0.18 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.65 -2.25 -0.40
Brive -3.12 -3.19 0.10
Biarritz -3.77 -2.78 -1.00
USA Perpignan -4.54 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Brive Oct 24 37 – 9 4.40 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. USA Perpignan Oct 24 39 – 13 16.50 TRUE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Section Paloise Oct 24 42 – 20 13.10 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. RC Toulonnais Oct 24 39 – 6 13.00 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 24 21 – 32 11.20 FALSE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 24 23 – 18 0.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Oct 24 41 – 0 14.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 31 Bordeaux-Begles 8.10
2 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Oct 31 Castres Olympique 9.50
3 Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 31 Montpellier 2.90
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 31 Racing-Metro 92 2.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Oct 31 Section Paloise 3.40
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Biarritz Oct 31 RC Toulonnais 10.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle Oct 31 La Rochelle -5.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.07 7.35 -1.30
Wasps 3.63 5.66 -2.00
Sale Sharks 2.62 4.96 -2.30
Saracens 1.79 -5.00 6.80
Harlequins 0.86 -1.08 1.90
Northampton Saints 0.76 -2.48 3.20
Leicester Tigers -1.41 -6.14 4.70
Gloucester -1.57 -1.02 -0.50
Bath -1.84 2.14 -4.00
Bristol -2.50 1.28 -3.80
Newcastle Falcons -3.10 -3.52 0.40
London Irish -6.11 -8.05 1.90
Worcester Warriors -10.83 -5.71 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 47.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 23 66 – 10 12.10 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Oct 24 21 – 33 19.70 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 24 29 – 20 5.50 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 24 31 – 17 6.30 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 24 19 – 11 -0.50 FALSE
6 Saracens vs. Wasps Oct 25 56 – 15 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 30 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Bath vs. Wasps Oct 31 Wasps -1.00
3 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 31 London Irish 0.90
4 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 31 Northampton Saints 6.70
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Oct 31 Sale Sharks -8.90
6 Harlequins vs. Saracens Nov 01 Harlequins 3.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.67 10.71 -1.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 8.30 4.07 4.20
Wellington 6.47 5.62 0.80
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.79 5.20 -2.40
Taranaki 2.64 -4.52 7.20
Canterbury 2.23 6.44 -4.20
Waikato 2.13 2.52 -0.40
Otago -4.65 -3.47 -1.20
Northland -9.37 -4.75 -4.60
Manawatu -9.63 -14.72 5.10
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.97 -10.39 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 22 22 – 20 -4.60 FALSE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 23 41 – 14 7.00 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 23 47 – 35 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 29 Tasman -3.90
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 30 Bay of Plenty 4.20
3 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 30 Hawke’s Bay -14.40
4 Otago vs. Wellington Oct 30 Wellington -7.60
5 Southland vs. Northland Oct 31 Southland 0.90

 

October 23, 2021

Vaccine data in kids

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The external scientific advisory committee for the FDA meets next week to consider the Pfizer Covid vaccine in kids 5-12.  Pfizer’s briefing to the committee is now up on the website; the FDA briefing is not (as of midday Saturday).

Demographically, the trial isn’t as representative as the initial adult trials, which were much better than usual. About 10% of the participants had asthma and about 10% were obese. Black and Hispanic populations were under-represented by about a half relative to the US population —  though there has been no indication that race/ethnicity matters for vaccine efficacy so far.

For the extension to ages 5-12 there are basically three questions

  1. Is the dose right? They used 1/3 of the adult dose. Using too much would increase  adverse effects; using too little would not provide reliable immunity
  2. Is there anything new and worrying about adverse effects? This trial, like all randomised trials, is too small to see surprising and rare adverse reactions that happen to 1 person in 10,000 or 1 in a million. These can only ever be picked up by post-marketing surveillance, as we’ve seen for both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines. Safety signals in the trial would involve milder, less rare reactions at elevated rates.
  3. What is the risk/benefit relationship like, given the relatively lower risk from Covid in kids and the fact that (in contrast to many infectious diseases) kids don’t seem to spread it more effectively than adults do?

The data are positive on the first point. Pain and redness at the injection site are a bit more common than with teenagers given the full dose; systemic reactions such as fatigue and fever are a bit less common.  Levels of neutralising antibodies are about the same as in teenagers given the full dose.

On the second point, the trial is again positive. Nothing new seems to have been seen (though this is where the FDA briefing will be important, to see if they agree — how you classify adverse events can make a difference).

It’s harder to say what regulators will think for the third point, but if the FDA were willing in principle to approve based on a trial of this general design there doesn’t seem to be anything obvious in the results that would make them not approve based on these data.

 

Update: FDA’s briefing is now available.  The main new information is an explicit risk-benefit analysis. As you’d expect, the net benefit depends on the Covid incidence, but they say the net benefit might be positive even under the lowest-incidence case (and that’s assuming only 80% effectiveness against hospitalisation, which is probably a bit low, and a pessimistic view of the data on myocarditis). They don’t seem to model any community effect of vaccination by reducing infection in other people and thus reducing exposure to the virus. Risk-benefit is where the most interesting discussion should be at next week’s meeting.

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October 19, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.28 14.79 0.50
Munster 11.64 10.69 1.00
Ulster 7.91 7.41 0.50
Glasgow 3.35 3.69 -0.30
Bulls 2.61 3.65 -1.00
Connacht 1.62 1.72 -0.10
Edinburgh 1.61 2.90 -1.30
Stormers 1.57 0.00 1.60
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Ospreys 0.31 0.94 -0.60
Cardiff Rugby -0.11 -0.11 -0.00
Scarlets -1.41 -0.77 -0.60
Lions -3.08 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.81 -4.50 -0.30
Dragons -5.73 -6.92 1.20
Zebre -15.06 -13.47 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Stormers Oct 16 10 – 24 0.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Lions Oct 16 26 – 10 17.80 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Oct 16 6 – 17 -12.10 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Ospreys Oct 17 26 – 29 2.30 FALSE
5 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Oct 17 17 – 10 5.20 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Scarlets Oct 17 50 – 15 21.80 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Oct 17 23 – 17 6.10 TRUE
8 Munster vs. Connacht Oct 17 20 – 18 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Benetton Oct 23 Scarlets 9.90
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 23 Edinburgh -10.20
3 Glasgow vs. Leinster Oct 24 Leinster -5.40
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 24 Cardiff Rugby 10.60
5 Connacht vs. Ulster Oct 24 Ulster -1.30
6 Ospreys vs. Munster Oct 24 Munster -4.80
7 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 05 Lions 1.60
8 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 05 Stormers 4.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.34 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 6.91 6.78 0.10
Racing-Metro 92 6.10 6.13 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 5.96 4.15 1.80
Bordeaux-Begles 5.95 5.42 0.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.38 5.09 -0.70
Montpellier 1.43 -0.01 1.40
Castres Olympique 0.73 0.94 -0.20
RC Toulonnais 0.46 1.82 -1.40
Stade Francais Paris 0.26 1.20 -0.90
Section Paloise -2.21 -2.25 0.00
Brive -2.38 -3.19 0.80
USA Perpignan -4.07 -2.78 -1.30
Biarritz -4.50 -2.78 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. La Rochelle Oct 17 6 – 8 -2.90 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Biarritz Oct 17 38 – 20 11.00 TRUE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 17 25 – 19 3.90 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 17 20 – 22 4.20 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux-Begles Oct 17 33 – 37 -1.40 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Oct 17 20 – 27 1.70 FALSE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Paris Oct 17 22 – 23 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Brive Oct 24 Biarritz 4.40
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. USA Perpignan Oct 24 Bordeaux-Begles 16.50
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Section Paloise Oct 24 Clermont Auvergne 13.10
4 La Rochelle vs. RC Toulonnais Oct 24 La Rochelle 13.00
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 24 Racing-Metro 92 11.20
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 24 Stade Francais Paris 0.80
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Oct 24 Stade Toulousain 14.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.58 7.35 0.20
Wasps 5.56 5.66 -0.10
Sale Sharks 3.11 4.96 -1.90
Harlequins 0.41 -1.08 1.50
Saracens -0.13 -5.00 4.90
Northampton Saints -1.23 -2.48 1.30
Bath -1.38 2.14 -3.50
Gloucester -1.85 -1.02 -0.80
Leicester Tigers -1.90 -6.14 4.20
Bristol -2.50 1.28 -3.80
Newcastle Falcons -2.82 -3.52 0.70
London Irish -7.62 -8.05 0.40
Worcester Warriors -8.84 -5.71 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 16 28 – 22 7.40 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 17 13 – 5 3.60 TRUE
3 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 17 23 – 27 3.30 FALSE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 17 3 – 48 1.80 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Saracens Oct 18 17 – 71 8.60 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Gloucester Oct 18 25 – 25 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 23 Northampton Saints 12.10
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Oct 24 Exeter Chiefs 19.70
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 24 Gloucester 5.50
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 24 Harlequins 6.30
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 24 Sale Sharks -0.50
6 Saracens vs. Wasps Oct 25 Wasps -1.20

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.67 10.71 -1.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 6.96 4.07 2.90
Wellington 6.47 5.62 0.80
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Waikato 3.47 2.52 1.00
Taranaki 3.05 -4.52 7.60
Canterbury 2.82 6.44 -3.60
Bay of Plenty 2.79 5.20 -2.40
Otago -5.24 -3.47 -1.80
Northland -9.37 -4.75 -4.60
Manawatu -10.04 -14.72 4.70
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.97 -10.39 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 15 13 – 24 1.10 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 16 16 – 36 2.30 FALSE
3 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 16 26 – 33 5.70 FALSE
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 16 16 – 36 -11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 22 Canterbury -4.60
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 23 Hawke’s Bay 7.00
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Oct 23 Bay of Plenty 15.70
4 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 23 Taranaki 16.60
5 Wellington vs. Southland Oct 23 Wellington 21.90

 

October 18, 2021

Kākāpō for bogus poll of the year

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It’s time for NZ’s Bird of the Year.  There are two important things to remember about Bird of the Year. First, if you’re going to talk about it on social media use the appropriate hashtag so normal people can mute you.  Second, Bird of the Year is a popularity contest driven by who votes and by last minute social influences; it doesn’t tell us anything new about the birds themselves or really even anything about their popularity in other settings. That’s not the thing you need to remember. The thing you need to remember is that all other online bogus clicky polls work the same way.

I’m campaigning for kākāpō because Zoe Luo, who is doing a PhD with me, is working on ways to model the genetics of rare species, using kākāpō as an example.  The entire kākāpō species had full genome sequencing done.  You usually can’t do that; Zoe is looking at how to use genome sequencing on a sample of the population together with other information on the rest of the birds to fit similar statistical models to the ones you would fit with full genome sequencing.  We can do this with the kākāpō because it’s easy to see what how well your models would work if you had less data than you really do — you can just ignore some of it — but it’s harder to see how well your models would work if you had more data than you really do.

 

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