November 16, 2021

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Finals

Team Ratings for the Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 10.20 10.71 -0.50
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 7.11 4.07 3.00
Wellington 5.93 5.62 0.30
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Canterbury 3.49 6.44 -2.90
Waikato 2.29 2.52 -0.20
Taranaki 1.83 -4.52 6.40
Bay of Plenty 0.78 5.20 -4.40
Otago -2.28 -3.47 1.20
Northland -9.00 -4.75 -4.20
Manawatu -10.85 -14.72 3.90
Southland -10.88 -10.39 -0.50
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Otago Nov 12 16 – 44 -1.60 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Nov 13 25 – 13 17.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Nov 13 27 – 33 1.80 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Canterbury Nov 13 17 – 14 2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Finals

Here are the predictions for the Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Otago Nov 20 Taranaki 7.60
2 Waikato vs. Tasman Nov 20 Tasman -4.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »