March 8, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.52 -5.00 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 4.05 7.35 -3.30
Leicester Tigers 2.79 -6.14 8.90
Sale Sharks 2.79 4.96 -2.20
Wasps 1.58 5.66 -4.10
Gloucester 1.06 -1.02 2.10
Harlequins 0.51 -1.08 1.60
Northampton Saints -0.31 -2.48 2.20
London Irish -0.98 -8.05 7.10
Bristol -2.54 1.28 -3.80
Bath -5.83 2.14 -8.00
Newcastle Falcons -7.85 -3.52 -4.30
Worcester Warriors -11.40 -5.71 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 05 24 – 10 12.60 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Bristol Mar 06 29 – 27 1.10 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Mar 06 35 – 30 6.00 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 06 43 – 12 13.10 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 06 34 – 27 6.10 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Mar 07 19 – 12 5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 13 Exeter Chiefs -11.00
2 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 13 Leicester Tigers 8.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Mar 13 Saracens -7.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Mar 13 Sale Sharks 6.20
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 14 Bristol 1.50
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Mar 14 Northampton Saints 2.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »