NFL Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 12.80 | 12.03 | 0.80 |
| Patriots | 9.53 | 8.11 | 1.40 |
| Bills | 6.80 | 4.81 | 2.00 |
| Rams | 5.49 | 6.16 | -0.70 |
| Vikings | 4.88 | 2.79 | 2.10 |
| Jaguars | 4.22 | 4.17 | 0.10 |
| 49ers | 4.13 | 0.63 | 3.50 |
| Broncos | 3.34 | 4.07 | -0.70 |
| Texans | 3.07 | 5.51 | -2.40 |
| Lions | 2.94 | 5.20 | -2.30 |
| Ravens | 2.65 | 2.53 | 0.10 |
| Bengals | 2.26 | 0.39 | 1.90 |
| Bears | 2.05 | 1.18 | 0.90 |
| Chiefs | 0.91 | -1.34 | 2.30 |
| Packers | -0.56 | 1.72 | -2.30 |
| Eagles | -0.64 | 0.73 | -1.40 |
| Steelers | -0.87 | -0.43 | -0.40 |
| Saints | -1.06 | -3.38 | 2.30 |
| Colts | -2.11 | -0.74 | -1.40 |
| Chargers | -2.12 | 1.16 | -3.30 |
| Cowboys | -2.82 | -3.42 | 0.60 |
| Raiders | -2.82 | -5.72 | 2.90 |
| Giants | -2.94 | -2.38 | -0.60 |
| Panthers | -3.28 | -4.66 | 1.40 |
| Browns | -3.54 | -2.50 | -1.00 |
| Buccaneers | -4.73 | -3.95 | -0.80 |
| Falcons | -5.10 | -1.39 | -3.70 |
| Commanders | -5.75 | -4.65 | -1.10 |
| Cardinals | -6.56 | -7.49 | 0.90 |
| Dolphins | -6.74 | -3.99 | -2.80 |
| Jets | -7.71 | -9.84 | 2.10 |
| Titans | -9.24 | -8.81 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills vs. Lions | Sept 18 | 41 – 31 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Falcons vs. Panthers | Sept 21 | 3 – 34 | 3.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Ravens vs. Saints | Sept 21 | 17 – 24 | 6.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Bears vs. Vikings | Sept 21 | 3 – 9 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Texans vs. Bengals | Sept 21 | 6 – 20 | 4.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Patriots vs. Steelers | Sept 21 | 20 – 3 | 7.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Jets vs. Packers | Sept 21 | 17 – 20 | -8.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Buccaneers vs. Browns | Sept 21 | 19 – 23 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 9 | Titans vs. Eagles | Sept 21 | 20 – 24 | -10.40 | TRUE |
| 10 | Broncos vs. Jaguars | Sept 21 | 20 – 13 | -3.90 | FALSE |
| 11 | Chargers vs. Raiders | Sept 21 | 14 – 26 | 3.60 | FALSE |
| 12 | Cardinals vs. Seahawks | Sept 21 | 7 – 31 | -17.60 | TRUE |
| 13 | Cowboys vs. Commanders | Sept 21 | 37 – 20 | -0.20 | FALSE |
| 14 | 49ers vs. Dolphins | Sept 21 | 35 – 13 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 15 | Chiefs vs. Colts | Sept 21 | 33 – 30 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 16 | Rams vs. Giants | Sept 22 | 28 – 6 | 5.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Packers vs. Falcons | Sept 25 | Packers | 4.50 |
| 2 | Bills vs. Chargers | Sept 28 | Bills | 8.90 |
| 3 | Browns vs. Panthers | Sept 28 | Panthers | -0.30 |
| 4 | Lions vs. Jets | Sept 28 | Lions | 10.70 |
| 5 | Colts vs. Texans | Sept 28 | Texans | -5.20 |
| 6 | Jaguars vs. Patriots | Sept 28 | Patriots | -5.30 |
| 7 | Dolphins vs. Chiefs | Sept 28 | Chiefs | -7.70 |
| 8 | Giants vs. Titans | Sept 28 | Giants | 6.30 |
| 9 | Steelers vs. Bengals | Sept 28 | Bengals | -3.10 |
| 10 | Commanders vs. Seahawks | Sept 28 | Seahawks | -18.60 |
| 11 | 49ers vs. Cardinals | Sept 28 | 49ers | 10.70 |
| 12 | Buccaneers vs. Vikings | Sept 28 | Vikings | -9.60 |
| 13 | Cowboys vs. Ravens | Sept 28 | Ravens | -5.50 |
| 14 | Saints vs. Raiders | Sept 28 | Saints | 1.80 |
| 15 | Broncos vs. Rams | Sept 28 | Rams | -2.10 |
| 16 | Bears vs. Eagles | Sept 29 | Bears | 2.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »