Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 5.95 | -5.00 | 10.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.66 | -6.14 | 10.80 |
| Gloucester | 3.01 | -1.02 | 4.00 |
| Harlequins | 2.88 | -1.08 | 4.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.60 | 7.35 | -4.70 |
| Wasps | 1.98 | 5.66 | -3.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.50 | -2.48 | 4.00 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.38 | 4.96 | -3.60 |
| London Irish | -2.60 | -8.05 | 5.40 |
| Bristol | -4.08 | 1.28 | -5.40 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.07 | -3.52 | -3.60 |
| Bath | -8.44 | 2.14 | -10.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -13.39 | -5.71 | -7.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 141 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins | Apr 30 | 32 – 31 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 30 | 35 – 27 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Bath | May 01 | 64 – 0 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | May 01 | 56 – 26 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens | May 01 | 16 – 38 | -13.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | London Irish vs. Wasps | May 02 | 42 – 42 | -0.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. London Irish | May 22 | London Irish | -1.30 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 22 | Exeter Chiefs | -2.20 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | May 22 | Harlequins | 4.40 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers | May 22 | Leicester Tigers | -7.20 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | May 22 | Saracens | 8.90 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Sale Sharks | May 22 | Wasps | 5.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »