May 31, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 29

Team Ratings for Week 29

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.94 14.79 1.10
Munster 10.63 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.17 7.41 0.80
Stormers 7.23 0.00 7.20
Bulls 7.22 3.65 3.60
Sharks 6.73 -0.07 6.80
Edinburgh 3.66 2.90 0.80
Glasgow 1.76 3.69 -1.90
Ospreys -0.83 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.23 -0.77 -0.50
Connacht -1.60 1.72 -3.30
Lions -1.74 -3.91 2.20
Benetton -3.68 -4.50 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.42 -0.11 -7.30
Dragons -11.81 -6.92 -4.90
Zebre -16.99 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby May 21 69 – 21 6.70 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Sharks May 21 24 – 21 9.00 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Bulls May 21 31 – 38 -0.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Lions May 22 11 – 21 -2.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Zebre May 22 22 – 20 24.00 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Stormers May 22 21 – 26 -1.30 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow May 22 28 – 11 5.60 TRUE
8 Leinster vs. Munster May 22 35 – 25 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 29

Here are the predictions for Week 29. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 04 Bulls 5.50
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jun 04 Ulster 2.50
3 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 05 Leinster 20.70
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Jun 05 Stormers 10.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »