Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 6.03 | 7.93 | -1.90 |
| Gloucester | 5.92 | 5.92 | 0.00 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.38 | 4.14 | 0.20 |
| Harlequins | 4.05 | 3.92 | 0.10 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.86 | 3.99 | -0.10 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.43 | 3.67 | -0.20 |
| Wasps | 0.77 | 0.77 | -0.00 |
| London Irish | -1.89 | -1.65 | -0.20 |
| Saracens | -3.10 | -5.00 | 1.90 |
| Bristol | -3.31 | -2.43 | -0.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.88 | -8.76 | 0.90 |
| Bath | -8.91 | -9.15 | 0.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -12.27 | -12.27 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 5 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol | Oct 01 | 30 – 15 | -1.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | London Irish vs. Bath | Oct 02 | 47 – 38 | 12.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 02 | 28 – 20 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 02 | 51 – 18 | -8.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 03 | 35 – 29 | 4.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 08 | Exeter Chiefs | -2.20 |
| 2 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Oct 09 | Gloucester | -10.30 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 09 | Leicester Tigers | 6.20 |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Oct 09 | Harlequins | -11.80 |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens | Oct 10 | Saracens | -0.30 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 10 | Wasps | 1.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »