Top 14 Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.53 | 6.34 | 1.20 |
| La Rochelle | 6.93 | 6.88 | 0.10 |
| Montpellier | 4.91 | 4.18 | 0.70 |
| Clermont | 4.71 | 4.05 | 0.70 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.46 | 5.27 | -0.80 |
| Racing 92 | 4.21 | 4.86 | -0.60 |
| Toulon | 3.70 | 4.09 | -0.40 |
| Lyon | 2.05 | 3.10 | -1.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.04 | 2.87 | -0.80 |
| Stade Francais | -0.24 | -1.05 | 0.80 |
| Section Paloise | -2.79 | -2.12 | -0.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.23 | -2.75 | -0.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -3.32 | -4.26 | 0.90 |
| Brive | -3.72 | -4.20 | 0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais | Oct 01 | 15 – 10 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Oct 02 | 25 – 22 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Lyon | Oct 02 | 43 – 20 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Toulon | Oct 02 | 17 – 34 | 1.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 02 | 14 – 10 | 0.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | La Rochelle vs. Racing 92 | Oct 02 | 24 – 19 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 03 | 17 – 19 | 4.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. La Rochelle | Oct 08 | La Rochelle | -3.80 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Oct 08 | Castres Olympique | 3.60 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 08 | Lyon | 4.10 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise | Oct 08 | Racing 92 | 13.50 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 08 | Stade Francais | 9.50 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Oct 08 | Stade Toulousain | 9.30 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Brive | Oct 08 | Toulon | 13.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »