Top 14 Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 9.29 | 6.34 | 2.90 |
| La Rochelle | 6.91 | 6.88 | 0.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.36 | 5.27 | -0.90 |
| Clermont | 4.31 | 4.05 | 0.30 |
| Toulon | 4.07 | 4.09 | -0.00 |
| Montpellier | 3.93 | 4.18 | -0.30 |
| Racing 92 | 3.90 | 4.86 | -1.00 |
| Lyon | 2.94 | 3.10 | -0.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.77 | 2.87 | -0.10 |
| Stade Francais | 1.14 | -1.05 | 2.20 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -2.95 | -4.26 | 1.30 |
| Section Paloise | -3.01 | -2.12 | -0.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.78 | -2.75 | -2.00 |
| Brive | -5.63 | -4.20 | -1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 49 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 | Oct 16 | 29 – 17 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 16 | 7 – 45 | -6.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Oct 16 | 39 – 22 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Lyon | Oct 16 | 26 – 33 | 8.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais | Oct 16 | 29 – 31 | 2.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont | Oct 16 | 10 – 20 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | La Rochelle vs. Toulon | Oct 17 | 32 – 5 | 8.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 23 | Aviron Bayonnais | 8.30 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 23 | Clermont | 6.50 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Section Paloise | Oct 23 | Lyon | 12.40 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Montpellier | Oct 23 | Racing 92 | 6.50 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Brive | Oct 23 | Stade Francais | 13.30 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 23 | Toulon | 7.80 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle | Oct 24 | Stade Toulousain | 8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »