Top 14 Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 9.29 | 6.34 | 2.90 |
| La Rochelle | 6.90 | 6.88 | 0.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.68 | 5.27 | -0.60 |
| Toulon | 4.08 | 4.09 | -0.00 |
| Clermont | 3.99 | 4.05 | -0.10 |
| Racing 92 | 3.93 | 4.86 | -0.90 |
| Montpellier | 3.90 | 4.18 | -0.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.76 | 2.87 | -0.10 |
| Lyon | 2.52 | 3.10 | -0.60 |
| Stade Francais | 1.61 | -1.05 | 2.70 |
| Section Paloise | -2.58 | -2.12 | -0.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -3.17 | -4.26 | 1.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.56 | -2.75 | -1.80 |
| Brive | -6.10 | -4.20 | -1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 23 | 24 – 20 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 23 | 23 – 23 | 6.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Section Paloise | Oct 23 | 31 – 27 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Montpellier | Oct 23 | 38 – 31 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Brive | Oct 23 | 27 – 0 | 13.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 23 | 28 – 20 | 7.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle | Oct 24 | 26 – 17 | 8.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 30 | Stade Toulousain | -6.00 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Racing 92 | Oct 30 | Racing 92 | -3.50 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont | Oct 30 | Castres Olympique | 5.30 |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise | Oct 30 | La Rochelle | 16.00 |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Oct 30 | Montpellier | 8.80 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon | Oct 30 | Lyon | -0.60 |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon | Oct 31 | Bordeaux Begles | 7.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »