Top 14 Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.56 | 6.34 | 1.20 |
| La Rochelle | 6.94 | 6.88 | 0.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais | 4.44 | -1.05 | 5.50 |
| Toulon | 3.91 | 4.09 | -0.20 |
| Lyon | 3.56 | 3.10 | 0.50 |
| Montpellier | 3.22 | 4.18 | -1.00 |
| Racing 92 | 2.98 | 4.86 | -1.90 |
| Clermont | 1.96 | 4.05 | -2.10 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | 0.51 | -4.26 | 4.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.46 | 2.87 | -3.30 |
| Section Paloise | -2.26 | -2.12 | -0.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.65 | -2.75 | -1.90 |
| Brive | -5.56 | -4.20 | -1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 133 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 26 | 41 – 10 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 26 | 43 – 7 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Feb 26 | 32 – 16 | 19.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | Feb 26 | 45 – 11 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Montpellier | Feb 26 | 27 – 17 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Feb 26 | 34 – 10 | 15.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Toulon | Feb 27 | 36 – 21 | 3.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 05 | Bordeaux Begles | -4.20 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon | Mar 05 | Castres Olympique | 2.50 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Clermont | Mar 05 | Montpellier | 7.80 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle | Mar 05 | La Rochelle | -2.70 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Stade Francais | Mar 05 | Toulon | 6.00 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Mar 05 | USA Perpignan | 1.30 |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 06 | Racing 92 | 1.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »