Top 14 Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.12 | 6.88 | 0.20 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.80 | 6.34 | 0.50 |
| Toulon | 4.98 | 4.09 | 0.90 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.93 | 5.27 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.79 | -1.05 | 4.80 |
| Montpellier | 3.48 | 4.18 | -0.70 |
| Lyon | 2.96 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Racing 92 | 2.73 | 4.86 | -2.10 |
| Clermont | 1.41 | 4.05 | -2.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.83 | 2.87 | -2.00 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | 0.34 | -4.26 | 4.60 |
| Section Paloise | -1.36 | -2.12 | 0.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.28 | -2.75 | -1.50 |
| Brive | -6.46 | -4.20 | -2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 161 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier | Apr 22 | 33 – 30 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Apr 22 | 23 – 9 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Brive vs. Section Paloise | Apr 22 | 22 – 17 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Castres Olympique vs. Toulon | Apr 22 | 31 – 18 | 1.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | La Rochelle vs. Clermont | Apr 22 | 19 – 10 | 12.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 22 | 26 – 13 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 | Apr 22 | 30 – 21 | -1.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont vs. Stade Francais | May 07 | Clermont | 4.10 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. USA Perpignan | May 07 | Lyon | 13.70 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Brive | May 07 | Montpellier | 16.40 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais | May 07 | Racing 92 | 8.90 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique | May 07 | Section Paloise | 4.30 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. La Rochelle | May 07 | Toulon | 4.40 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 08 | Stade Toulousain | 8.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »