May 16, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.81 17.95 -1.10
Blues 12.42 12.34 0.10
Chiefs 12.31 8.81 3.50
Hurricanes 10.47 9.59 0.90
Brumbies 7.55 6.64 0.90
Highlanders 1.42 5.04 -3.60
Reds 1.06 1.89 -0.80
Waratahs -0.84 -2.50 1.70
Western Force -5.35 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.16 -6.19 0.00
Fijian Drua -9.39 -10.50 1.10
Moana Pasifika -11.66 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 22 – 25 18.40 FALSE
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 34 – 14 6.40 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 71 – 22 23.80 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 15 – 3 7.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 38 – 20 7.90 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 48 – 32 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -25.00
2 Reds vs. Blues May 19 Blues -5.90
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 20 Highlanders 13.10
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 20 Chiefs 5.30
5 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua May 20 Waratahs 12.10
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 20 Brumbies -9.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »