October 15, 2013

Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

Here are the team ratings prior to the SemiFinals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.90 4.47 0.40
Sharks 4.04 3.24 0.80
Cheetahs 0.51 -2.74 3.30
Lions -0.28 -1.22 0.90
Blue Bulls -0.35 0.59 -0.90
Griquas -10.97 -6.48 -4.50


Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 12 35 – 26 20.20 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 12 22 – 7 6.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 12 13 – 17 9.00 FALSE


Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 19 Western Province 12.70
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Oct 19 Sharks 11.00



David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »


  • avatar
    Willem du Plessis

    This appeared in the Afrikaans newspaper today regarding statistical prediction regarding goalkickers. I thought you might find it interesting.



    4 years ago