Posts from November 2023 (15)

November 14, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.23 7.24 -1.00
Stade Rochelais 5.13 6.40 -1.30
Racing 92 4.43 3.42 1.00
Stade Francais 3.85 2.62 1.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.62 4.07 -0.50
Toulon 2.89 3.11 -0.20
Lyon 2.28 2.97 -0.70
Clermont 1.93 1.47 0.50
Section Paloise 1.52 -0.44 2.00
Castres Olympique 1.12 -0.39 1.50
Montpellier 0.66 2.09 -1.40
Bayonne -1.29 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.57 -3.64 -1.90
US Oyonnax -9.21 -10.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. US Oyonnax Nov 12 39 – 11 16.00 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Nov 12 32 – 36 5.90 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 12 17 – 20 6.10 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 12 20 – 11 3.90 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 12 18 – 15 13.70 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 12 43 – 34 19.00 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Nov 13 31 – 26 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Nov 18 Bayonne 3.70
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 18 Castres Olympique 1.40
3 Clermont vs. Toulon Nov 18 Clermont 5.50
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Nov 18 Stade Francais 5.90
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 18 Stade Rochelais 8.00
6 US Oyonnax vs. Lyon Nov 18 Lyon -5.00
7 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Nov 18 USA Perpignan 0.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.13 6.82 -0.70
Sale Sharks 5.39 6.46 -1.10
Exeter Chiefs 5.37 -0.89 6.30
Harlequins 4.88 1.93 3.00
Leicester Tigers 2.61 6.13 -3.50
Northampton Saints 2.60 2.66 -0.10
Bath 1.45 -1.26 2.70
Bristol 0.82 1.00 -0.20
Gloucester -5.43 -1.45 -4.00
Newcastle Falcons -13.07 -10.63 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Bath Nov 11 27 – 45 2.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 12 13 – 27 4.70 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Nov 12 25 – 29 5.40 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 13 12 – 50 -8.20 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 13 34 – 19 0.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Nov 18 Bath 6.60
2 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 18 Sale Sharks 24.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Nov 19 Leicester Tigers 6.00
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Nov 19 Harlequins 4.70
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Nov 20 Exeter Chiefs 16.80

 

November 7, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.28 10.54 -0.30
Bulls 10.27 9.00 1.30
Stormers 9.29 8.93 0.40
Leinster 9.18 10.73 -1.60
Ulster 6.68 7.80 -1.10
Glasgow 5.94 4.19 1.70
Connacht 3.58 3.17 0.40
Sharks -1.15 0.85 -2.00
Edinburgh -1.67 -2.26 0.60
Lions -3.24 -4.26 1.00
Benetton -3.58 -5.12 1.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.55 -5.16 -0.40
Scarlets -5.69 -2.23 -3.50
Ospreys -6.71 -7.79 1.10
Dragons -9.74 -8.14 -1.60
Zebre -17.89 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers Nov 04 20 – 9 -1.30 FALSE
2 Ospreys vs. Sharks Nov 04 19 – 5 -4.30 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Bulls Nov 04 29 – 54 -23.90 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 05 36 – 27 16.30 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Dragons Nov 05 45 – 14 22.70 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 05 31 – 25 0.80 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Nov 05 22 – 20 -1.90 FALSE
8 Benetton vs. Lions Nov 05 15 – 10 3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Nov 11 Sharks -12.70
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Bulls Nov 11 Bulls -11.80
3 Ulster vs. Munster Nov 11 Munster -1.60
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Nov 12 Stormers -8.90
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Nov 12 Glasgow -8.70
6 Scarlets vs. Lions Nov 12 Scarlets 1.50
7 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Nov 12 Connacht -1.30
8 Dragons vs. Leinster Nov 12 Leinster -14.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.59 7.24 -0.60
Stade Rochelais 5.51 6.40 -0.90
Racing 92 4.43 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.87 4.07 -0.20
Stade Francais 3.36 2.62 0.70
Toulon 2.89 3.11 -0.20
Lyon 2.77 2.97 -0.20
Clermont 1.48 1.47 0.00
Section Paloise 1.26 -0.44 1.70
Montpellier 1.12 2.09 -1.00
Castres Olympique 0.71 -0.39 1.10
Bayonne -1.66 -1.32 -0.30
USA Perpignan -5.93 -3.64 -2.30
US Oyonnax -8.80 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Nov 05 26 – 13 8.80 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Nov 05 46 – 14 8.20 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Nov 05 22 – 20 8.80 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 05 13 – 9 0.90 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 05 39 – 16 8.20 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 05 26 – 22 -3.00 FALSE
7 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 06 19 – 17 -8.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. US Oyonnax Nov 12 Castres Olympique 16.00
2 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Nov 12 Lyon 5.90
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 12 Montpellier 6.10
4 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 12 Section Paloise 3.90
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 12 Stade Rochelais 13.70
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 12 Stade Toulousain 19.00
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Nov 13 Toulon 5.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.62 -0.89 7.50
Harlequins 4.04 1.93 2.10
Sale Sharks 3.78 6.46 -2.70
Saracens 3.62 6.82 -3.20
Leicester Tigers 3.45 6.13 -2.70
Bristol 2.43 1.00 1.40
Northampton Saints 1.35 2.66 -1.30
Bath -0.33 -1.26 0.90
Gloucester -3.65 -1.45 -2.20
Newcastle Falcons -10.56 -10.63 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Nov 04 24 – 10 13.30 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 04 40 – 12 19.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Nov 05 24 – 18 8.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 05 32 – 17 4.30 TRUE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 06 29 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bath Nov 11 Gloucester 2.70
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 12 Bristol 4.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Nov 12 Leicester Tigers 5.40
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 13 Saracens -8.20
5 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 13 Northampton Saints 0.70

 

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