Top 14 Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 6.59 | 7.24 | -0.60 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.51 | 6.40 | -0.90 |
| Racing 92 | 4.43 | 3.42 | 1.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.87 | 4.07 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais | 3.36 | 2.62 | 0.70 |
| Toulon | 2.89 | 3.11 | -0.20 |
| Lyon | 2.77 | 2.97 | -0.20 |
| Clermont | 1.48 | 1.47 | 0.00 |
| Section Paloise | 1.26 | -0.44 | 1.70 |
| Montpellier | 1.12 | 2.09 | -1.00 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.71 | -0.39 | 1.10 |
| Bayonne | -1.66 | -1.32 | -0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.93 | -3.64 | -2.30 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.80 | -10.00 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 35 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Nov 05 | 26 – 13 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Bayonne | Nov 05 | 46 – 14 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Lyon | Nov 05 | 22 – 20 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 05 | 13 – 9 | 0.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 05 | 39 – 16 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Nov 05 | 26 – 22 | -3.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | US Oyonnax vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 06 | 19 – 17 | -8.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. US Oyonnax | Nov 12 | Castres Olympique | 16.00 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Stade Francais | Nov 12 | Lyon | 5.90 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Clermont | Nov 12 | Montpellier | 6.10 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 12 | Section Paloise | 3.90 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne | Nov 12 | Stade Rochelais | 13.70 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 12 | Stade Toulousain | 19.00 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Nov 13 | Toulon | 5.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »