Top 14 Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.31 | 7.24 | 0.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.27 | 6.40 | -1.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.29 | 4.07 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 3.49 | 3.42 | 0.10 |
| Toulon | 3.44 | 3.11 | 0.30 |
| Stade Francais | 2.82 | 2.62 | 0.20 |
| Clermont | 1.76 | 1.47 | 0.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.35 | -0.39 | 1.70 |
| Montpellier | 1.32 | 2.09 | -0.80 |
| Section Paloise | 0.44 | -0.44 | 0.90 |
| Lyon | -0.70 | 2.97 | -3.70 |
| Bayonne | -1.04 | -1.32 | 0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.82 | -3.64 | -0.20 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.30 | -10.00 | 1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Clermont | Feb 18 | 21 – 13 | 3.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise | Feb 18 | 10 – 20 | 11.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais | Feb 18 | 28 – 17 | -0.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Montpellier | Feb 18 | 20 – 44 | 10.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 18 | 32 – 19 | 13.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. US Oyonnax | Feb 18 | 61 – 34 | 21.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Castres Olympique vs. Toulon | Feb 19 | 25 – 17 | 4.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles | Feb 25 | Castres Olympique | 3.60 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. US Oyonnax | Feb 25 | Lyon | 14.10 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Bayonne | Feb 25 | Montpellier | 8.90 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais | Feb 25 | Racing 92 | 7.20 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Toulon | Feb 25 | Section Paloise | 3.50 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais | Feb 25 | Stade Rochelais | -2.60 |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 26 | Clermont | 0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »