Top 14 Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.56 | 7.24 | 0.30 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.78 | 6.40 | -1.60 |
| Stade Francais | 3.54 | 2.62 | 0.90 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.50 | 4.07 | -0.60 |
| Toulon | 3.22 | 3.11 | 0.10 |
| Racing 92 | 2.77 | 3.42 | -0.70 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.13 | -0.39 | 2.50 |
| Clermont | 1.51 | 1.47 | 0.00 |
| Montpellier | 1.12 | 2.09 | -1.00 |
| Section Paloise | 0.67 | -0.44 | 1.10 |
| Lyon | -0.56 | 2.97 | -3.50 |
| Bayonne | -0.85 | -1.32 | 0.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.34 | -3.64 | 0.30 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.45 | -10.00 | 1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles | Feb 25 | 41 – 12 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. US Oyonnax | Feb 25 | 43 – 26 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Bayonne | Feb 25 | 28 – 23 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais | Feb 25 | 11 – 27 | 7.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Toulon | Feb 25 | 17 – 9 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais | Feb 25 | 27 – 15 | -2.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 26 | 33 – 37 | 0.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Lyon | Mar 03 | Bayonne | 6.20 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 | Mar 03 | Bordeaux Begles | 7.20 |
| 3 | Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise | Mar 03 | Stade Francais | 9.40 |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 03 | Stade Toulousain | 11.90 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 03 | Toulon | 13.10 |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Montpellier | Mar 03 | Montpellier | -3.10 |
| 7 | Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont | Mar 04 | Stade Rochelais | 9.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »