March 5, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.22 18.86 -1.60
Chiefs 14.67 13.21 1.50
Blues 11.83 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 10.13 9.73 0.40
Brumbies 6.26 6.52 -0.30
Highlanders 1.31 1.17 0.10
Reds 0.96 0.07 0.90
Waratahs -1.28 -1.90 0.60
Rebels -4.90 -4.59 -0.30
Western Force -7.31 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.37 -9.21 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.40 -10.80 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 37 -10.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 48 – 34 4.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 39 – 36 -1.70 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 24 – 37 20.80 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 46 – 12 6.40 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 38 – 33 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 Rebels -0.50
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 Waratahs 2.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 Crusaders -21.60
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 Brumbies 16.60
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 Hurricanes 1.30
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -8.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »