A moveable fast
After the US started being more unfriendly to visitors, there were analyses showing a sharp fall in visitor numbers “year on year”. The NY Times has a story about changes in international travel showing it’s a bit more complicated than that:
During the second half of March and early April the year-on-year comparison showed a drop because last year’s data included the Easter peak and this year’s didn’t. Some people jumped to conclusions about the drop, attributing it to visitors being worried about border control. We can now see that it wasn’t.
The Times goes on to look at bookings for summer travel to the US, where there do seem to be real decreases.
Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »