NRL Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.93 | 9.29 | 0.60 |
| Panthers | 5.33 | 8.50 | -3.20 |
| Sharks | 4.93 | 5.10 | -0.20 |
| Roosters | 4.83 | 7.44 | -2.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.47 | 2.97 | 0.50 |
| Bulldogs | 2.31 | 0.07 | 2.20 |
| Cowboys | 1.62 | 4.11 | -2.50 |
| Raiders | 0.92 | -3.61 | 4.50 |
| Dolphins | 0.17 | -1.96 | 2.10 |
| Warriors | -0.52 | -1.68 | 1.20 |
| Broncos | -1.72 | -1.82 | 0.10 |
| Dragons | -3.23 | -4.55 | 1.30 |
| Knights | -3.81 | -0.05 | -3.80 |
| Eels | -4.13 | -3.02 | -1.10 |
| Rabbitohs | -4.21 | -4.35 | 0.10 |
| Titans | -7.09 | -5.50 | -1.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.80 | -10.97 | 2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 100 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Knights | May 30 | 20 – 6 | 2.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Storm | May 31 | 16 – 28 | -14.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | May 31 | 32 – 28 | 14.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | May 31 | 34 – 6 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Jun 01 | 30 – 36 | 0.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Eels | Jun 01 | 18 – 10 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Raiders | Jun 01 | 24 – 26 | 7.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 05 | Sea Eagles | -4.30 |
| 2 | Storm vs. Cowboys | Jun 06 | Storm | 11.30 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Dragons | Jun 06 | Dolphins | 6.40 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Jun 07 | Sharks | 8.90 |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Titans | Jun 07 | Broncos | 8.40 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 08 | Raiders | 8.10 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Jun 08 | Panthers | -11.10 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Jun 09 | Bulldogs | 9.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »