NRL Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.54 | 9.29 | 1.20 |
| Panthers | 4.95 | 8.50 | -3.60 |
| Roosters | 4.73 | 7.44 | -2.70 |
| Dolphins | 3.82 | -1.96 | 5.80 |
| Sharks | 3.48 | 5.10 | -1.60 |
| Bulldogs | 2.62 | 0.07 | 2.50 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.88 | 2.97 | -1.10 |
| Raiders | 1.65 | -3.61 | 5.30 |
| Warriors | 0.98 | -1.68 | 2.70 |
| Broncos | -0.78 | -1.82 | 1.00 |
| Cowboys | -1.00 | 4.11 | -5.10 |
| Knights | -3.28 | -0.05 | -3.20 |
| Eels | -4.58 | -3.02 | -1.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -4.81 | -4.35 | -0.50 |
| Dragons | -4.92 | -4.55 | -0.40 |
| Titans | -6.87 | -5.50 | -1.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.42 | -10.97 | 2.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 113 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Jun 12 | 30 – 18 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 13 | 28 – 8 | -8.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Knights vs. Roosters | Jun 14 | 8 – 12 | -5.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Dolphins | Jun 14 | 4 – 58 | 2.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Jun 15 | 18 – 24 | -7.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Jun 20 | Raiders | -7.10 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Jun 21 | Panthers | -0.50 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Knights | Jun 21 | Dolphins | 10.10 |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Jun 21 | Storm | -12.30 |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Jun 22 | Sharks | -1.30 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Jun 22 | Roosters | 8.70 |
| 7 | Eels vs. Titans | Jun 22 | Eels | 5.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »