NRL Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.37 | 9.29 | 1.10 |
| Panthers | 5.13 | 8.50 | -3.40 |
| Roosters | 4.94 | 7.44 | -2.50 |
| Dolphins | 3.65 | -1.96 | 5.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.59 | 2.97 | -0.40 |
| Bulldogs | 2.43 | 0.07 | 2.40 |
| Sharks | 2.43 | 5.10 | -2.70 |
| Raiders | 1.36 | -3.61 | 5.00 |
| Broncos | 0.66 | -1.82 | 2.50 |
| Warriors | -0.07 | -1.68 | 1.60 |
| Cowboys | -1.50 | 4.11 | -5.60 |
| Knights | -2.78 | -0.05 | -2.70 |
| Dragons | -4.05 | -4.55 | 0.50 |
| Eels | -4.62 | -3.02 | -1.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -5.24 | -4.35 | -0.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.61 | -10.97 | 3.40 |
| Titans | -7.70 | -5.50 | -2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 133 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Jul 04 | 18 – 22 | 5.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Jul 05 | 28 – 24 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Jul 05 | 20 – 26 | -9.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 06 | 28 – 30 | 17.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 06 | 30 – 12 | 10.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Dolphins | Jul 11 | Sharks | 1.80 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Storm | Jul 12 | Storm | -10.20 |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Jul 12 | Roosters | -6.00 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Jul 12 | Bulldogs | -0.90 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 13 | Warriors | 11.00 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Panthers | Jul 13 | Panthers | -6.80 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Broncos | Jul 13 | Broncos | -5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »