July 23, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.16 9.29 0.90
Panthers 6.17 8.50 -2.30
Roosters 4.43 7.44 -3.00
Dolphins 3.69 -1.96 5.60
Sharks 3.53 5.10 -1.60
Sea Eagles 3.22 2.97 0.20
Bulldogs 2.26 0.07 2.20
Raiders 2.04 -3.61 5.60
Broncos 1.03 -1.82 2.80
Warriors 0.68 -1.68 2.40
Cowboys -2.29 4.11 -6.40
Knights -3.48 -0.05 -3.40
Dragons -3.72 -4.55 0.80
Rabbitohs -5.57 -4.35 -1.20
Eels -6.00 -3.02 -3.00
Titans -7.90 -5.50 -2.40
Wests Tigers -8.23 -10.97 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Jul 17 43 – 24 7.90 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Jul 18 31 – 18 0.90 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 30 – 10 14.10 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Eels Jul 19 40 – 16 9.70 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jul 19 20 – 18 9.80 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 19 16 – 18 11.20 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jul 20 21 – 20 3.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 20 15 – 20 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 24 Storm -2.70
2 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jul 25 Cowboys 4.40
3 Broncos vs. Eels Jul 25 Broncos 10.00
4 Warriors vs. Titans Jul 26 Warriors 12.10
5 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 Panthers 14.40
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Jul 26 Sharks -9.10
7 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 27 Raiders 8.50
8 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 Bulldogs 2.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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