NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.26 | 9.29 | 1.00 |
| Panthers | 7.03 | 8.50 | -1.50 |
| Roosters | 4.33 | 7.44 | -3.10 |
| Dolphins | 3.69 | -1.96 | 5.60 |
| Bulldogs | 3.67 | 0.07 | 3.60 |
| Sharks | 3.14 | 5.10 | -2.00 |
| Raiders | 2.82 | -3.61 | 6.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.82 | 2.97 | -1.20 |
| Broncos | 0.44 | -1.82 | 2.30 |
| Warriors | -0.20 | -1.68 | 1.50 |
| Cowboys | -2.17 | 4.11 | -6.30 |
| Dragons | -3.85 | -4.55 | 0.70 |
| Knights | -4.27 | -0.05 | -4.20 |
| Rabbitohs | -5.19 | -4.35 | -0.80 |
| Eels | -5.42 | -3.02 | -2.40 |
| Titans | -7.02 | -5.50 | -1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.09 | -10.97 | 1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 156 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Storm | Jul 24 | 30 – 34 | -2.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Dragons | Jul 25 | 38 – 32 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Eels | Jul 25 | 20 – 22 | 10.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Titans | Jul 26 | 16 – 24 | 12.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 26 | 36 – 2 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | Jul 26 | 12 – 14 | -9.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Knights | Jul 27 | 44 – 18 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 27 | 42 – 4 | 2.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Storm | Jul 31 | Storm | -12.70 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Dolphins | Aug 01 | Dolphins | -0.40 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 01 | Broncos | 8.60 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Panthers | Aug 02 | Panthers | -11.10 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Raiders | Aug 02 | Raiders | -3.70 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Aug 02 | Sea Eagles | 0.50 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | Aug 03 | Bulldogs | -9.80 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Aug 03 | Sharks | 8.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »