AFL Predictions for Week 24
Team Ratings for Week 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 27.52 | 18.20 | 9.30 |
| Geelong Cats | 24.96 | 15.04 | 9.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 24.01 | 2.69 | 21.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 20.87 | 21.95 | -1.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.92 | 22.65 | -8.70 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 13.75 | -6.41 | 20.20 |
| GWS Giants | 9.76 | 9.08 | 0.70 |
| Collingwood | 9.39 | 5.39 | 4.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 8.02 | 5.99 | 2.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | 1.48 | -0.21 | 1.70 |
| Sydney Swans | 0.47 | 12.60 | -12.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -7.48 | 0.89 | -8.40 |
| Carlton Blues | -8.57 | 5.01 | -13.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -11.60 | 7.63 | -19.20 |
| Essendon Bombers | -23.67 | -10.15 | -13.50 |
| North Melbourne | -28.30 | -37.08 | 8.80 |
| Richmond Tigers | -29.72 | -31.00 | 1.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -37.20 | -34.67 | -2.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 188 matches played, 130 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood | Aug 07 | 110 – 46 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 08 | 109 – 65 | 62.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 09 | 52 – 56 | -25.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 09 | 90 – 92 | 28.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 09 | 74 – 93 | -8.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 09 | 86 – 92 | -9.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne | Aug 10 | 133 – 79 | 47.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs | Aug 10 | 99 – 105 | -29.60 | TRUE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 10 | 78 – 87 | -56.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 24
Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 15 | St Kilda Saints | -16.20 |
| 2 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 15 | Fremantle Dockers | 5.10 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants | Aug 16 | Gold Coast Suns | 15.00 |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 16 | Carlton Blues | 14.00 |
| 5 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 16 | Hawthorn Hawks | 19.40 |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood | Aug 16 | Adelaide Crows | 25.60 |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 17 | North Melbourne | 5.40 |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 17 | Geelong Cats | -13.50 |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 17 | Western Bulldogs | 75.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »