AFL Predictions for Week 25
Team Ratings for Week 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 28.93 | 18.20 | 10.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 27.09 | 15.04 | 12.10 |
| Adelaide Crows | 22.31 | 2.69 | 19.60 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 22.18 | 21.95 | 0.20 |
| Brisbane Lions | 17.93 | 22.65 | -4.70 |
| GWS Giants | 13.10 | 9.08 | 4.00 |
| Collingwood | 11.09 | 5.39 | 5.70 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 10.42 | -6.41 | 16.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 4.00 | 5.99 | -2.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.17 | -0.21 | 0.40 |
| Sydney Swans | -1.66 | 12.60 | -14.30 |
| Carlton Blues | -5.81 | 5.01 | -10.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | -8.63 | 0.89 | -9.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -14.36 | 7.63 | -22.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -22.52 | -10.15 | -12.40 |
| North Melbourne | -25.39 | -37.08 | 11.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -32.63 | -31.00 | -1.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -38.62 | -34.67 | -4.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 197 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 15 | 75 – 77 | -16.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 15 | 44 – 101 | 5.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants | Aug 16 | 76 – 111 | 15.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 16 | 118 – 64 | 14.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 16 | 92 – 56 | 19.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood | Aug 16 | 59 – 56 | 25.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 17 | 135 – 87 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 17 | 68 – 111 | -13.50 | TRUE |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 17 | 126 – 32 | 75.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 25
Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 21 | Carlton Blues | -16.70 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 22 | Collingwood | 10.90 |
| 3 | Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 23 | Brisbane Lions | 6.70 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 23 | GWS Giants | 32.70 |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 23 | Adelaide Crows | -36.70 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 23 | Gold Coast Suns | -13.80 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 23 | Geelong Cats | -48.70 |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 23 | Sydney Swans | -26.00 |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 23 | Western Bulldogs | 35.90 |
| 10 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 27 | Gold Coast Suns | 43.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »