AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 25.92 | 15.04 | 10.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 25.54 | 18.20 | 7.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.79 | 21.95 | -0.20 |
| Adelaide Crows | 20.54 | 2.69 | 17.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.32 | 22.65 | -4.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 12.43 | -6.41 | 18.80 |
| GWS Giants | 11.45 | 9.08 | 2.40 |
| Collingwood | 10.50 | 5.39 | 5.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 7.39 | 5.99 | 1.40 |
| Sydney Swans | 1.16 | 12.60 | -11.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.76 | -0.21 | 1.00 |
| Carlton Blues | -4.46 | 5.01 | -9.50 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.98 | 0.89 | -7.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -12.97 | 7.63 | -20.60 |
| North Melbourne | -23.62 | -37.08 | 13.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -27.28 | -10.15 | -17.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.46 | -31.00 | -0.50 |
| West Coast Eagles | -41.44 | -34.67 | -6.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 207 matches played, 145 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 21 | 56 – 90 | -16.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 22 | 82 – 76 | 10.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 23 | 89 – 79 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 23 | 104 – 93 | 32.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 23 | 100 – 113 | -36.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 23 | 71 – 67 | -13.80 | FALSE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 23 | 64 – 103 | -48.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 23 | 51 – 118 | -26.00 | TRUE |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 23 | 97 – 112 | 35.90 | FALSE |
| 10 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 27 | 153 – 58 | 43.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood | Sept 04 | Adelaide Crows | 21.00 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions | Sept 05 | Geelong Cats | 11.60 |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sept 06 | GWS Giants | 0.70 |
| 4 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Sept 06 | Fremantle Dockers | 6.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »