NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2
Team Ratings for Finals Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 7.16 | 16.73 | -9.60 |
| Roosters | 7.01 | 0.13 | 6.90 |
| Sharks | 5.31 | 2.20 | 3.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 4.34 | -3.90 | 8.20 |
| Broncos | 2.73 | 4.78 | -2.10 |
| Raiders | 1.85 | 3.50 | -1.70 |
| Panthers | 0.61 | 2.64 | -2.00 |
| Cowboys | 0.13 | 2.97 | -2.80 |
| Dragons | -0.31 | -0.45 | 0.10 |
| Warriors | -0.74 | -6.97 | 6.20 |
| Bulldogs | -0.82 | -3.43 | 2.60 |
| Titans | -4.06 | -8.91 | 4.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.43 | -3.63 | -1.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -5.47 | -1.07 | -4.40 |
| Eels | -5.98 | 1.51 | -7.50 |
| Knights | -8.66 | -8.43 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 196 matches played, 122 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 07 | 29 – 28 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Warriors | Sep 08 | 27 – 12 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Sharks | Sep 08 | 21 – 12 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Sep 09 | 18 – 48 | 11.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Finals Week 2
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Sep 14 | Sharks | 4.70 |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Sep 15 | Rabbitohs | 4.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David,
Any prediction towards the match between Australia & Argentina scheduled Saturday 15th September?
Really enjoying the Mitre 10 Cup predictions also.
Cheers
6 years ago
Sorry, no predictions for international games. I have done the last two World Cups, but not in between.
6 years ago