AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals
Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 27.86 | 15.04 | 12.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 26.01 | 21.95 | 4.10 |
| Western Bulldogs | 25.54 | 18.20 | 7.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 19.48 | 22.65 | -3.20 |
| Adelaide Crows | 14.77 | 2.69 | 12.10 |
| Collingwood | 13.55 | 5.39 | 8.20 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 10.16 | -6.41 | 16.60 |
| GWS Giants | 9.94 | 9.08 | 0.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.56 | 5.99 | 0.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 1.16 | 12.60 | -11.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.76 | -0.21 | 1.00 |
| Carlton Blues | -4.46 | 5.01 | -9.50 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.98 | 0.89 | -7.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -12.97 | 7.63 | -20.60 |
| North Melbourne | -23.62 | -37.08 | 13.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -27.28 | -10.15 | -17.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.46 | -31.00 | -0.50 |
| West Coast Eagles | -41.44 | -34.67 | -6.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 213 matches played, 147 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sept 12 | 67 – 101 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns | Sept 13 | 100 – 47 | 7.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Preliminary Finals
Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sept 19 | Hawthorn Hawks | -9.20 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions | Sept 20 | Collingwood | 5.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »