Top 14 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.97 | 11.56 | 0.40 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.48 | 4.78 | -0.30 |
| Toulon | 3.95 | 3.49 | 0.50 |
| Section Paloise | 2.62 | 2.21 | 0.40 |
| Bayonne | 2.00 | 1.48 | 0.50 |
| Stade Rochelais | 1.52 | 1.22 | 0.30 |
| Clermont | 1.48 | 1.88 | -0.40 |
| Racing 92 | 1.20 | 1.88 | -0.70 |
| Lyon | 0.23 | -0.45 | 0.70 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.18 | 0.59 | -0.40 |
| Montpellier | -0.68 | -0.21 | -0.50 |
| Stade Francais | -1.65 | -2.17 | 0.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.89 | -3.37 | -0.50 |
| Montauban | -10.52 | -10.00 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Francais vs. Montauban | Sept 06 | 47 – 24 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne | Sept 07 | 19 – 26 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Sept 07 | 15 – 17 | 4.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | Sept 07 | 32 – 7 | 4.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Toulon | Sept 07 | 17 – 27 | 2.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais | Sept 07 | 23 – 18 | 10.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain | Sept 08 | 24 – 34 | -3.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montauban vs. Lyon | Sept 14 | Lyon | -4.30 |
| 2 | Bayonne vs. Montpellier | Sept 14 | Bayonne | 9.20 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais | Sept 14 | Section Paloise | 10.80 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont | Sept 14 | Stade Rochelais | 6.50 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Sept 14 | Stade Toulousain | 22.40 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Castres Olympique | Sept 14 | Toulon | 10.30 |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sept 15 | Racing 92 | 3.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »