Top 14 Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.61 | 11.56 | 0.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.07 | 4.78 | -0.70 |
| Toulon | 3.62 | 3.49 | 0.10 |
| Section Paloise | 3.03 | 2.21 | 0.80 |
| Racing 92 | 2.52 | 1.88 | 0.60 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.34 | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| Clermont | 1.38 | 1.88 | -0.50 |
| Bayonne | 0.78 | 1.48 | -0.70 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.42 | 0.59 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 0.39 | -0.21 | 0.60 |
| Lyon | -0.40 | -0.45 | 0.00 |
| Stade Francais | -1.19 | -2.17 | 1.00 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.52 | -3.37 | -1.10 |
| Montauban | -11.15 | -10.00 | -1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sept 28 | 28 – 7 | -0.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Montauban vs. Montpellier | Sept 28 | 22 – 22 | -5.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Clermont | Sept 28 | 43 – 31 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Lyon | Sept 28 | 40 – 15 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan | Sept 28 | 31 – 8 | 12.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Sept 28 | 59 – 12 | 15.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bayonne vs. Toulon | Sept 29 | 35 – 32 | 3.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 05 | Stade Toulousain | -4.30 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Oct 05 | Bordeaux Begles | 11.00 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Oct 05 | Castres Olympique | 4.40 |
| 4 | Clermont vs. Montauban | Oct 05 | Clermont | 19.00 |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais | Oct 05 | Montpellier | 4.60 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Oct 05 | Toulon | 7.10 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais | Oct 05 | USA Perpignan | 3.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »